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13 year old boy corrects NASA's calculations

April 21st 2008 07:54
Satellite Asteroid collision
NASA usually calms our fears of an asteroid hitting the Earth.

"Don't worry," they say, "it'll never happen. Well, not never, but the probability is so small, it's like one in a zillion. Get yourself a Happy Meal and chill out, duuuuude."


Sorry - what was that probability?

"Um, we calculate it to be 1 in 45 000. And I gotta say - I like those odds."

Unfortunately for all of us here on the planet, including Bruce Willis and his band of working-class heroes, a 13-year-old boy decided to do the calculations himself and found that the chances were more like one in 450.

Suckerin' Suckatash! That suggests a collision is imminent! Brace yourselves for impact!

" Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported. "


But, as these things do, the boy turns out to be incorrect. New Scientist published a brief from NASA pooh-poohing the boy's results:

""The idea that we've somehow been corrected is absolutely untrue," Chesley told New Scientist. "We stand by our calculations."


A statement on NASA's website by Donald Yeomans, who heads NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office, confirms that NASA has not changed its estimate of 1 in 45,000 for Apophis's impact risk."

Naturally, this means a whole new round of wedgies for the young boy. Those physics bullies will definitely get the waistband up over his head. One in 450! Hah! Don't make me laugh!

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Comments
8 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by JohnDoe

April 21st 2008 08:12
He forgot to carry the 3 I guess

Comment by Damo

April 21st 2008 12:15
By my calculations it is one in 2 chance.
It either will happen or it will not happen.

Comment by Mountain Fog

April 21st 2008 14:02
I bet the kid is right...afterall, wasn't NASA that siad, nahh, those "O" Rings are fine...god for another few missions at least....errrr...nope!

cheers

fog

Comment by Cibbuano

April 22nd 2008 00:22
thanks for the comments!

I wonder how that 13-year-old even approached the calculations? Doesn't NASA use massive computers to keep track?


Comment by The wonderful Peter Yang

April 22nd 2008 02:02
That is why I say, don't under estimate somebody just because they are young.

Comment by RubySoho

April 22nd 2008 06:18
Oh you had me going Cibb. How disappointing the kid got it wrong. Well, not disappointing that we won't be having an up close and personal with Apophis, but how hilarious would it have been if the kid really had shown up NASA?

Valiant effort though.

Comment by Louie

April 22nd 2008 07:46
dam, i thought it was one for the good guys - conspiracy theory - it could still be true, they just don't want people to get all panicky so are standing by their no and hoping it will go away...imagine the headlines

1 in 450 chance of the end of the world......not good in an election year

Comment by Ahmed

April 22nd 2008 14:17
The boy tried proving nasa wrong, nasa said he made a mistake, tabloid picked it up, decided 'Boy Corrects nasa' sounds better than 'Boy Gets it Wrong, NASA in the Right'.

I HATE this kind of media manipulation, the idiot who wrote about this should be hung up by his gnads.

Here's one source: Really Long Link

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